Prop Evaluation Research: Keep Untriggered Ideas Outside Closed Outcomes
A research journal can contain ideas that never triggered, positions still open and completed outcomes. Combining all of them into a single win-rate number changes the question. Define the cohort and observation cutoff before using it in an evaluation plan.
Explore this site’s existing research resource
Assign states before seeing a favourable result
Record the original idea, trigger condition, publication time and follow-up cutoff. Give each idea a stable identifier. Closed win, closed loss, still open, untriggered and unresolved are different statuses; preserve the reason for each classification.
A later profitable price move does not prove that the entry condition occurred or that an account executed it. Keep the idea record separate from actual fills, charges and the provider’s stage. This site’s previous untriggered-idea resource supplies the companion method.
Work a fictional eight-idea cohort
Suppose the cohort contains two closed wins, one closed loss, two open positions, two untriggered ideas and one unresolved record. Among the three closed outcomes, the win fraction is 2/3, approximately 66.7%. That fraction describes only those closed outcomes.
Calling six of eight ideas non-losses would mix unobserved and unfinished states with known results. The small, incomplete cohort does not establish a population win rate or the chance of passing a prop evaluation. Preserve counts for every state beside the fraction.
| Status | Count | Role in closed-outcome fraction |
|---|---|---|
| Closed wins / losses | 2 / 1 | 2 wins among 3 closed outcomes |
| Still open | 2 | Not yet closed |
| Untriggered | 2 | No triggered outcome established |
| Unresolved | 1 | Unknown, not a zero or win |
Review outcomes and account rules independently
Actual account performance needs confirmed executions and the full account path, including open exposure. HashHedge’s published daily-loss treatment includes floating results, so a closed-only research statistic should not be used as current account equity.
The optional sponsored link is for reviewing the current programme and conditions. No signal was published or followed, and no real account result is asserted. The exercise is useful precisely because it leaves the unfinished part of the cohort visible.
Sources and rule dates
- HashHedge: daily loss calculation
Checked 2026-10-23. Selected published description only. Worked numbers and event records are fictional; no actual provider account, search result, live price, eligibility or payment is established. - HashHedge: challenge types
Checked 2026-10-23. Selected published description only. Worked numbers and event records are fictional; no actual provider account, search result, live price, eligibility or payment is established. - HashHedge: terms and conditions
Checked 2026-10-23. Selected published description only. Worked numbers and event records are fictional; no actual provider account, search result, live price, eligibility or payment is established.